Think you can’t use speed handicapping to find a good bet? Think again. There are still some good handicapping angles that involve speed. Of course there’s no substitute for good, thorough handicapping, but scanning the past performances and finding some good angles or spot plays, is one way to find good bets if you don’t have much time or you don’t feel like working for hours to handicap the races.
The simplest angle, of course, is to find a race with a horse that has back speed and is coming back from a layoff. These horses often don’t look good because their first two races after a layoff are for conditioning. They may fade badly or fail to engage the leaders of the races they were just in and therefore, they look like they can’t compete. Don’t be fooled by these types of horses.
There are times when the trainer knows his or her horse isn’t ready to compete. The jockey is instructed to just give the horse some air. That’s trainer speak for exercising the horse without pushing for the win. Most jockeys go along with that because they realize the horse needs the exercise in order to get into shape and a few races just for exercise will produce a horse that is sharp and ready to win. Unlike many handicappers who think only for the day and the present, trainers and jockeys have to think long term and map out a campaign for a horse.
Therefore, if the trainer is competent (I like to see a win average above 15%) and the jockey is a winner (a win average of at least 10%) and the horse has the fastest time at the distance or is one of the top three, then it may be worth a bet unless the competition is too strong. Naturally the larger the field the more chances there are that the horse will be beaten.
A good tip is to look such a horse over in the paddock and in the post parade. If it has a grass belly or seems dull and flat, pass it by. If the jockey doesn’t seem focused and ready it also probably means he isn’t going for the win. Check out the rider’s body language. One of the worst signs is a rider whose feet are out of the stirrups during the walk to the starting gate. The only time the jockey should be riding that way is if the horse is fractious and he or she may have to dismount quickly.
Find a sharp looking speed horse under the above conditions and you may have a good bet.